نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
Technological, economic, cultural, and political transformations have shifted the role of universities from purely educational and research institutions to cultural–political actors that help regulate relations among the state, market, and society. Despite the growing body of literature on the future university, a substantial proportion of existing studies has focused on global trends or single-dimensional models—such as the digital and entrepreneurial university—while paying comparatively limited attention to governance scenario planning within multilayered institutional contexts. This study aimed to identify key driving forces and uncertainties and to develop future scenarios for the governance of Islamic Azad University toward the horizon year 1414 .The research adopted an exploratory futures studies design and employed a mixed-methods approach. Data were collected through a review of the literature and relevant documents, interviews with 10 experts, and a three-round Delphi process involving 15 specialists in higher education, futures studies, and management. The data were subsequently analyzed using structural analysis and scenario-planning techniques, supported by MICMAC and Scenario Wizard software. From an initial pool of 189 factors across 10 macro-dimensions, 140 influential factors were validated. Structural analysis identified 60 linkage variables characterized by high influence and high dependence. For each factor, morphological states were defined, and internally consistent scenarios were designed and selected for each dimension at three levels: possible, probable, and robust. The findings indicate that the future governance of Islamic Azad University will be shaped by the co-evolution of digital transformation, policymaking, internationalization, human capital, the knowledge-based economy, socio-cultural linkages, resilience, sustainability, values, and research. The selected scenarios emphasize a guided intelligent transition, data-driven network governance, gradual internationalization, human-capital development, a regulated knowledge-based economy, and a socially embedded university. Accordingly, the future governance system of Islamic Azad University may be conceptualized as an ecosystemic configuration emerging from the synergy, coordination, and co-evolution of three interrelated subsystems: intelligent, interactive, and responsible governance within the higher education ecosystem.
کلیدواژهها English