Introduction: Planning and policymaking at the level of social institutions require the identification of trends, changes, and macro-social transformations. In order to achieve the richness of science, education, culture, and art envisioned in the Twenty-Year Vision Document of the Islamic Republic of Iran, comprehensive frameworks have been developed. To design the path through which the country’s scientific and cultural development progresses from the current situation to the desired state, the Comprehensive Scientific Map of the Country and the Cultural Engineering Map of the Country have been formulated, approved, and announced with specific strategies. As a result of adopting a balanced view of scientific disciplines, universities, and cultural and artistic fields, Iran seeks to attain a superior position in science, education, and culture, and to establish scientism and science-centeredness as the dominant discourse across all areas of society.
Achieving these objectives requires future-oriented studies grounded in the vision document and the cultural engineering map, so that appropriate strategies and policies aligned with the desired future can be designed and formulated with foresight. The necessity of such studies becomes evident when considering that, in the current century, rapid technological advancements are accompanied by unavoidable social, cultural, and political changes. Futures studies provide a new and reliable tool for assessing and identifying these transformations.
The Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance is one of the governmental institutions responsible for implementing the “official policies of the Islamic Republic in the field of public culture,” understood as policies that are “planned, conscious, progressive, and excellence-oriented,” from the perspectives of policymakers, the media, and the public. A review of the Ministry’s current cultural and educational policies, as well as its past trends, indicates that major goals and approaches have been suspended or abandoned due to various factors, resulting in limited success in achieving the envisioned objectives. Practice-oriented methods, organizational structure, short-term perspectives, and event-driven approaches are among the key factors that have disrupted the Ministry’s policies and programs. Accordingly, examining these factors highlights the growing necessity of paying closer attention to future-oriented perspectives.
Method: Following a review of the research literature, 15 experts with relevant knowledge and experience were selected through judgmental and purposive sampling. Data were collected through a workshop session and a series of expert interviews. The interview findings were evaluated, validated, and refined through three rounds of the Delphi technique. Theoretical saturation was used as the criterion for terminating the sampling process. Through thematic analysis of the interview data, 31 variables were identified as drivers influencing this field. These drivers were subsequently subjected to structural analysis using MicMac software. In this stage, the direct and indirect influences and dependencies of the drivers were assessed and ranked. From among them, 10 key variables were entered into the Scenario Wizard software, leading to the identification of two scenarios with a high probability of occurrence.
Results: The first scenario for the future of the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance’s policies in the field of cultural and artistic education represents a more favorable situation. In this scenario, based on the country’s cultural engineering map, it is anticipated that the public will gain greater access to new art education technologies, including digital art education platforms, virtual reality, and the expanded use of artificial intelligence. To foster the development of cultural and artistic fields, the role of the private sector must be strengthened. This expanded role is reflected in increased support for artists, the growth in number and scope of art education centers, and the organization of cultural and artistic events.
Achieving the desired situation in art education policymaking also requires enhancing the country’s level of interaction within global communication networks. Public awareness of art, art education, and the social influence of art plays a critical role in realizing this scenario. Increased public awareness manifests in a stronger perceived need for diverse forms of art and a greater demand for participation in art education. One of the key drivers of this scenario is the reduction of a security-oriented approach to art. The dominance of such an approach restricts cultural and artistic activities to governmental institutions and leads to the adoption of ineffective administrative regulations. Another crucial driver is economic recovery, which, by reducing security-oriented perspectives toward art, enhances young people’s interest in artistic fields. According to the experts participating in this study, such conditions have been more observable in the cultural discourse of so-called reformist governments and merit further examination.
In contrast, the second scenario depicts an unfavorable situation for the expansion and promotion of art education policies. This scenario is characterized by neglect of economic conditions, the intensification of security-oriented views toward art and culture, the diminished role of artists and the private sector, and the continuation of existing trends in foreign relations and international interactions.
Discussion and Conclusion
 The mutual effects of the identified drivers were evaluated and analyzed using the Scenario Wizard software, resulting in the formulation of two scenarios with a high likelihood of occurrence. From the experts’ perspective, the first scenario presents a more desirable future for educational policies and policymaking within the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance. The second scenario reflects the persistence of the current situation and a trajectory of regression, representing an unfavorable outlook for art education policies in the country.